There’s a topic that’s dominated bar conversations lately, and it isn’t sport or politics. Well, it’s a bit like politics. It’s AI – and depending on who you’re drinking with, the predictions range from “humans will be fine” to “we’ll end up in zoos.” 🥵
Here I am, writing a blog post questioning AI’s intentions, while asking AI to help me write it. The irony is not lost on me.
Awkward doesn’t quite cover it. 🥴
🌍 Let’s Start With the Cheerful Bit: Human Extinction
You may be relieved to know that 99.9% of all species that have ever existed are already extinct. So statistically, we’re overdue. What’s new is that we may be the first species to actively build our own successors. There really is an AI extinction risk.
This isn’t just pub speculation. Hundreds of AI researchers signed a statement declaring that “mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war”.
That’s not a fringe view – that’s the scientific mainstream, increasingly. A survey of nearly 2,800 researchers found that roughly 45% of them estimated at least a 10% chance that AI would cause consequences as serious as human extinction.
Geoffrey Hinton – the so-called “Godfather of AI” and Nobel Prize winner – has raised his personal estimate of that risk to somewhere between 10% and 20%. That’s not a conspiracy theory.
Meanwhile, forecasters tend to put the likelihood of AI causing humanity’s extinction by 2100 at somewhere between 0 and 10%. Which sounds reassuring – until you remember that “10% chance of extinction” is not a phrase that should appear in any serious risk assessment without causing mass panic.
🍊 And Then There’s the Politics
Trump’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill” originally included a clause that would have banned all U.S. states from implementing AI regulations for 10 years – right at the moment top scientists are warning about existential risk. Fortunately, senators voted 99-1 to remove the provision, in what may be the most bipartisan thing Washington has managed in years. Small mercies.
😨 Even the Developers Are Scared
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI – one of the most powerful AI companies on Earth – has publicly mused that AI will probably lead to the end of the world, though he’s quick to add “but in the meantime, there’ll be great companies.”
Reassuring....The man building the thing isn’t sure which side of extinction we’re on. Sleep tight.😟
🔫 How Would AI Actually Do Us In?
I found myself genuinely puzzled by the mechanics of all this doom, so I consulted a computer scientist. He walked me through a few scenarios with the casual air of someone describing a grocery list.
The gist: an AI could, hypothetically, design and build a killer robot. 3D-printed gun designs are freely available online. And here’s what’s worrisome – AI can pay for this. Through cryptocurrency mining (Bitcoin, Ethereum and the like), which requires exactly the same high-powered GPU hardware that AI already uses, a sufficiently motivated AI could theoretically earn its own money, pay manufacturers, and build physical infrastructure.
Or it might just employ human mercenaries, and pay them handsomely? The AI might become an employer, and thus a boss. 😏
It’s the kind of scenario that sounds like a Netflix thriller until you realise that none of the technology involved is fictional.
🧠 Master of All Trades
What makes AI genuinely unnerving – beyond the killer robot stuff – is its breadth. It has already passed the legal bar exam (qualified lawyer, technically). It can synthesise medicine. It can write computer code, negotiate contracts, and generate income. AI can master any skill, methodology, or field of expertise – and unlike humans, it doesn’t need coffee, sleep, or a competitive salary to do it. 😏
The suggestion from some quarters is that rather than fighting this, we should merge with it – that we’ll be the first species to create our own descendants, not merely tools. Whether that seems profound or terrifying probably depends on how your day is going.
😅 So… Are We Still Allowed to Laugh?
Absolutely. In fact, given the alternative (such as fretting about it all) laughter remains the superior option. 🎉
Time will tell where all this leads. In the meantime, the bar conversation continues and the AI keeps improving.
Well….if we’re headed for extinction we might as well make the most of the time that remains….Prost! Salute! Cheers!!!
Sorry – I know this is a bit off-colour – but it is kind of appropriate!!! 😜
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